The mosquito-borne Ross River virus (RRV) can cause a crippling arthritic inflammation lasting between three and six months.
The virus is not fatal but causes flu-like symptoms within two weeks of infection including headaches, fever, pains in the muscles and joints.
About one-quarter of patients have rheumatic symptoms that persist for up to a year.
While progress has been made developing an effective treatment for the debilitating arthritis associated with the virus, medical entomologists from the NT Department of Health and Families have developed an early warning system for future outbreaks.
"The timing and number of RRV cases in the Darwin area can be very accurately predicted up to one month in advance based on rainfall, minimum temperatures and mosquito numbers from our mosquito monitoring program," said the department's senior medical entomologist Peter Whelan.
Whelan said a team of entomologists had studied weekly mosquito collections from 11 traps in the Darwin area over 15 years.
They also took into account rainfall, average minimal temperature and mosquito numbers to created a predictive model for the Darwin region.
Whelan said further research would be carried out in other locations in tropical Australia to work out their own RRV infection models.
"This is an excellent tool to more effectively control overall numbers of salt marsh and other mosquitoes as we can perform timely and more efficient spraying of mosquito breeding sites," he said.
"It will give us the opportunity to educate people about where virus hotspots are at certain times of the year which will ultimately reduce the number of people who contract RRV."
According to their research, almost 1,300 people in Darwin have contracted RRV over the past 15 years with the highest rate among people aged 30 to 34.
January and February are usually the months of highest risk of contracting RRV and people living in or visiting rural areas in the Top End, particularly near wetlands or water courses, are urged to take particular care to cover up against mosquito attacks.
Common Top End mosquitoes have the potential to carry RRV.
RRV is also closely associated with the viral disease Chikungunya, which in recent years has infected six million people in India and more than 300,000 cases in the French territories of the Western Indian Ocean.
